THIS WEEK
Sfax EVOO holds at €3.755/kg (flat w/w, indicative reading), maintaining a €0.296/kg premium over Jaén EVOO at €3.459/kg (+0.5%). Spain's virgin grade dipped notably, down 1.9% to €3.158/kg. Greece (Crete) EVOO fell 1.8% to €3.737/kg, nearly converging with Tunisia. Italy (Puglia) EVOO unchanged at €4.715/kg — the widest origin premium in the complex at €0.96/kg over Sfax.
WEATHER
Zero rainfall across every major basin this week — Sfax 33°C, Zaghouan 35°C, Jaén 24°C, Puglia 30°C, Crete 22°C. Tunisian groves face the most acute heat-drought stress; prolonged dry conditions through July risk reducing fruit set and oil accumulation for 2025/26 if no relief arrives.
NEWS & DRIVERS
Andalusia is evaluating new financial support for traditional groves, potentially slowing the structural decline of lower-yield Spanish acreage and stabilizing medium-term supply. No immediate price catalyst, but worth monitoring for subsidy-driven planting or retention effects on future crop volumes.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
Tunisia's flat EVOO price reflects thin summer activity, though the narrowing Crete–Sfax spread (now just €0.02/kg) signals competitive pressure on Greek substitution flows. For bulk and bottled exporters, the persistent Italian premium creates a clear value-positioning opportunity for Tunisian EVOO in EU and North American blending and private-label channels — but watch the drought: crop risk is real and could flip the premium structure by autumn.