THIS WEEK
Sfax EVOO slipped to €3.670/kg (-1.3% w/w, provisional), narrowing its premium over Jaén EVOO to just €17/t — the tightest spread in weeks. Spanish grades firmed: Jaén Virgin +1.7% to €3.232/kg, Lampante +1.3% to €3.024/kg, while Jaén EVOO eased fractionally (-0.3%). Italian Puglia EVOO held at €5.220/kg (-0.5%), maintaining a €1.55/kg premium over both Tunisian and Spanish extra virgin — a gap that continues to support arbitrage into Italian bottling channels.
WEATHER
Zero rainfall across all major basins this week — Sfax, Zaghouan, Jaén, Puglia, and Crete all recorded bone-dry conditions. Tunisian groves face sustained heat (28–30°C) heading into the critical fruit-set window; prolonged drought stress at this stage is a concrete downside risk for 2025/26 yields if no moisture arrives in the coming weeks.
NEWS & DRIVERS
EU olive oil exports are projected up 6% in 2025/26, fuelled by lower price levels drawing back volume buyers who curtailed purchases during the 2023–24 spike. Separately, shifting olive fruit fly risk patterns in Tuscany signal that climate-driven pest pressure is becoming a structural variable for Italian supply.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
Tunisian EVOO is now priced virtually at parity with Jaén EVOO, compressing the origin discount that typically anchors bulk demand. For exporters targeting global blenders and bottlers, the near-parity window strengthens the quality-value pitch for Tunisian oil — lock in contracts emphasising traceability and grade consistency before weather developments reprice the new-crop forward curve.