THIS WEEK
Spain Jaén virgin surged +3.8% to €3.367/kg, the week's standout move, while most other grades drifted lower. Tunisia Sfax EVOO eased -1.3% to €3.670/kg (indicative), narrowing its premium over Spanish EVOO (€3.703/kg) to near parity. Italian Puglia EVOO dropped -1.7% to €5.132/kg, maintaining a steep €1.46/kg premium over Tunisian origin — a spread that continues to favor bulk blending demand for North African oil.
WEATHER
Zero rainfall across every major grove region this week — Sfax, Zaghouan, Jaén, Puglia, and Crete all recorded bone-dry conditions with temps ranging 19–30°C. Prolonged drought through fruit-set is a genuine crop-risk signal; without meaningful rain in the next 2–3 weeks, 2025/26 yield expectations will need downward revision, particularly in Tunisia's interior and southern Spain.
NEWS & DRIVERS
European exports are projected up 6% in 2025/26 as lower prices stimulate demand recovery — a volume-positive but margin-compressing dynamic for origins still holding stock. Separately, evolving pest pressure from olive fruit fly in key Italian regions adds a quality-risk variable heading into fall.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
Tunisian EVOO at €3.67/kg sits virtually flat to Spanish EVOO, offering competitive bulk entry for importers seeking Mediterranean-grade oil without the Italian premium. With drought risk building and export volumes recovering globally, locking forward contracts on Tunisian bulk now — before weather revisions potentially tighten supply outlooks — is the clearest near-term play.