THIS WEEK
Portugal Alentejo EVOO dropped sharply to €3.450/kg (−12.7% w/w), the week's standout move and now nearly on par with Spain Jaén EVOO at €3.422/kg (−1.1%). Spanish lampante firmed to €3.155/kg (+2.3%), and Jaén virgin rose to €3.212/kg (+1.7%), signaling continued demand for lower grades. Tunisia Sfax EVOO held flat at €3.755/kg (provisional), maintaining a €0.333/kg premium over Jaén EVOO but narrowing against Italy Puglia EVOO at €4.742/kg (+0.6%).
WEATHER
Sfax averaged ~29.4°C with zero rainfall over seven days — sustained heat and drought stress during fruit development bears watching as the campaign approaches. No frost or extreme events reported across Iberian or Italian groves this week.
NEWS & DRIVERS
Spanish imports surged 84% this campaign to 73,400+ tonnes, triggering producer lobby calls to eliminate the EU customs mechanism facilitating Tunisian oil entry — a politically charged but not yet actionable trade barrier risk. Separately, falling wholesale prices across Spain are squeezing grove profitability, adding pressure for consolidation and potentially softening seller resistance into Q4.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
Tunisian EVOO's flat pricing reflects thin late-season liquidity rather than demand weakness; the origin still commands a quality premium over Spanish grades. Bulk exporters should leverage the widening Puglia spread (nearly €1/kg below Italian EVOO) and the Portuguese price collapse to position Tunisian lots competitively for EU bottlers seeking reliable supply ahead of the new campaign — but monitor the Spanish protectionist rhetoric as a medium-term access risk.