THIS WEEK
Spain EVOO (Jaén) dropped sharply to €3.490/kg (−5.7% w/w), with Virgin down similarly at €3.185/kg (−5.4%). Greece EVOO (Crete) fell €0.204 to €3.946/kg (−4.9%). Tunisia Sfax EVOO held flat at €3.670/kg (provisional/indicative), now sitting €0.180 above Spanish EVOO — a notably compressed premium versus recent weeks. Italy Puglia EVOO remains the outlier at €5.082/kg, though it edged down 1%. The Spain–Greece convergence is tightening fast; Lampante grades were essentially unchanged across all origins.
WEATHER
Zero rainfall across every major basin this week — Sfax, Zaghouan, Jaén, Puglia, and Crete all recorded bone-dry conditions. Tunisian inland temps hit ~36°C (Zaghouan), raising water-stress risk during fruit development; Spain and Italy are tracking high 20s. Without meaningful rain in the next 2–3 weeks, yield downgrades for the 2025/26 crop become a real conversation.
NEWS & DRIVERS
No direct price catalyst from this week's headlines. Italy's Xylella-resistance breeding progress is a longer-term structural story for Puglia supply, while Brazil's new premium certification may gradually reshape demand tiers for imported EVOO in a fast-growing consumer market.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
Tunisian EVOO's premium over Spain has compressed to roughly €0.18/kg as Spanish prices corrected — the narrowest gap in weeks — while holding steady against flat Italian and Greek Lampante. For bulk and bottled exporters, the current spread offers a window to lock in competitively priced Tunisian contracts before any weather-driven supply repricing; positioning volume into Brazil's emerging premium segment deserves attention given the new quality certification framework.