THIS WEEK
Spanish EVOO (Jaén) jumped +2.8% to €3.588/kg, the week's sharpest move, narrowing the gap to Tunisian EVOO at €3.670/kg (flat, provisional) to just €0.08/kg — the tightest Sfax-Jaén spread in recent memory. Spanish Lampante bucked the trend, slipping -1.3% to €2.974/kg. Italian (Puglia) EVOO eased -1.5% to €5.006/kg but remains a steep premium; Greek (Crete) EVOO mirrored that decline at -1.5% to €3.885/kg. Portugal held flat at €3.950/kg.
WEATHER
Intense heat and zero rainfall dominate Tunisia (Sfax ~33°C, Zaghouan ~33°C) and southern Spain (Jaén ~28°C, 0mm) — sustained drought stress during fruit development raises yield risk for 2025/26. Puglia saw modest relief at 7mm; Crete remains very dry at 2mm.
NEWS & DRIVERS
Spain's bumper 1.3M-ton output is pressuring grower margins, with production costs reportedly exceeding market returns in traditional groves — a dynamic that could cap further Spanish price declines. Italy's tightened blending regulations for EVOO labeling may redirect demand toward certified single-origin bulk, benefiting well-documented Mediterranean suppliers.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
Tunisian EVOO holds steady but the near-vanished Sfax-Jaén spread erodes the traditional price advantage for bulk buyers. Exporters should leverage Italy's new labeling rules and Spain's $25M U.S. push as tailwinds: position Tunisian EVOO's traceability and quality credentials for bottled-origin programs, particularly into the U.S. and EU markets where regulatory scrutiny on blends is tightening.