THIS WEEK
Sfax EVOO holds at €3.670/kg (flat w/w, provisional). Spanish EVOO in Jaén dropped 1.6% to €3.531/kg, narrowing the Tunisia–Spain EVOO spread to just €0.139/kg. Greek EVOO (Crete) slipped 0.9% to €3.850/kg, while Spanish lampante firmed 0.7% to €2.995/kg — the only meaningful uptick across origins. Italian Puglia EVOO remains the outlier at €4.991/kg, essentially unchanged.
WEATHER
Zero rainfall across every major basin this week — Sfax, Zaghouan, Jaén, Puglia, and Crete all recorded 0mm over seven days with temperatures ranging 19–31°C. Prolonged dry stress during fruit development is the key crop risk; without meaningful rain in the next 2–3 weeks, 2025/26 yield expectations across the Mediterranean will need downward revision.
NEWS & DRIVERS
Italy's two-week inspection blitz seized €10.3 million in irregular olive oil, reinforcing tighter compliance scrutiny in the EU's largest import market. The IOC's revised sterol standard for Coratina monovarietals eases authentication risk for a major varietal but signals broader analytical threshold adjustments ahead.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
At €3.670/kg, Tunisian EVOO trades at a razor-thin premium to Spain and well below Italy and Portugal, keeping its competitive positioning intact for bulk buyers. With the compressed Spain spread, Tunisian exporters targeting blending and private-label channels should lock in forward contracts now before drought-driven supply revisions reprice the entire Mediterranean complex upward.