THIS WEEK
Spain Jaén EVOO fell 2.2% w/w to €3.455/kg, with Virgin down a sharper 2.7% to €3.113/kg — the only origin showing meaningful price movement this week. Lampante in Jaén held near-flat at €2.993/kg. Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Tunisia all printed unchanged. The Tunisian EVOO indicative reading holds at €3.670/kg, sitting €0.215/kg above Jaén EVOO and €0.144/kg below Crete EVOO (€3.814/kg). The Italy-Spain EVOO premium widened to €1.536/kg as Puglia stayed pinned at €4.991/kg.
WEATHER
Zero rainfall across every major basin — Sfax, Zaghouan, Jaén, Puglia, and Crete all recorded 0mm over seven days with temperatures pushing 29–30°C. Sustained heat and drought at this stage of fruit development raise stress risk; any prolonged extension into July without relief could pressure 2025/26 yield expectations.
NEWS & DRIVERS
The EU's new collective-bargaining rules for farmers could gradually shift pricing power at origin, a structural factor worth monitoring for forward contracts. Italian consumer willingness to pay a 14% premium for health-claim labelling signals margin potential in positioned bottled segments.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
Tunisian EVOO at €3.670/kg remains competitively priced against both Greek and Italian extra virgin, offering the tightest spread to Jaén seen in recent weeks as Spanish prices soften. Exporters should leverage this window to lock in bulk and private-label contracts into price-sensitive markets before weather-driven volatility reshapes the 2025/26 supply picture.