THIS WEEK
Sfax EVOO dropped sharply to €3.427/kg (provisional, -6.6% w/w), the week's largest move and now just €0.042 above Jaén EVOO at €3.385/kg (-2% w/w) — compressing the Tunisia-Spain spread to near-parity. Spain virgin bucked the trend, rising 3.2% to €3.213/kg. Italy Puglia EVOO fell 3.5% to €4.817/kg but remains a €1.4+ premium over all other origins. Greece and Portugal held flat.
WEATHER
Persistent heat and zero rainfall across Sfax, Puglia, and Crete signal mounting moisture stress heading into the critical fruit-development window. Jaén and Zaghouan received marginal rain (2–3mm), insufficient to materially ease conditions. If dryness persists through June, yield risk for 2025/26 rises meaningfully across the central and eastern Mediterranean.
NEWS & DRIVERS
No major demand-side or policy catalysts this week. The Herzegovina olive sector's debut festival underscores continued geographic diversification of supply, though volumes remain negligible at a global scale.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
The 6.6% weekly pullback in Sfax EVOO narrows Tunisia's competitiveness gap versus Spain to razor-thin levels, making Tunisian bulk particularly attractive for blenders and private-label buyers seeking quality at origin-parity pricing. Exporters should act on current indicative levels to lock in contracts before weather-driven volatility potentially re-widens spreads — the dry Sfax outlook adds upside price risk for the new crop season.