THIS WEEK
Sfax EVOO surged to €3.755/kg (+9.6% w/w), an early-week indicative reading that reopens a notable premium over Spanish EVOO at €3.442/kg (+1.7%). Spanish lampante firmed to €3.086/kg (+1.9%), signaling tightening lower-grade supply. Greek and Portuguese origins held flat. Italy's Puglia EVOO eased to €4.713/kg (-2.2%), narrowing its premium over all other origins but still trading well above the pack.
WEATHER
Persistent heat and near-zero rainfall across every major basin this week — Sfax averaged ~31.6°C with 0mm, Jaén ~25.7°C/1mm, Puglia ~28.4°C/2mm, Crete ~21.2°C/0mm. Prolonged drought during fruit development is a tangible downside risk to 2025/26 yields across the Mediterranean; no relief is currently visible in short-range forecasts.
NEWS & DRIVERS
European harvest outlook is deteriorating under extreme summer weather, with reports of stressed fruit development reinforcing the bullish tone in spot prices. Separately, a strategic review at the world's largest bottled-oil group could reshape branded-market dynamics and sourcing patterns — worth monitoring.
TUNISIA & OUTLOOK
The Sfax spike narrows Tunisia's traditional discount to near parity with Greek Cretan EVOO (€3.806/kg) and well above Spanish grades, reflecting tight local stocks and drought concern. Exporters targeting bulk channels should lock forward coverage now while the Sfax-Jaén spread (~€0.31/kg) still offers destination buyers a quality-competitive Mediterranean alternative ahead of a supply-constrained new crop.